Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- McCormick had a strong first quarter with better-than-expected sales and margin expansion, increasing confidence in achieving the mid- to high end of their full-year sales growth guidance.
- Investments in brand marketing and new product launches are driving sequential volume improvements, especially in core categories like spices and seasonings.
- The Mexico joint venture delivered a strong performance, contributing meaningfully to profitability, and is expected to continue performing well throughout the year.
- McCormick expects headwinds in the second quarter for their Flavor Solutions segment, particularly in EMEA, due to lower quick-service restaurant foot traffic, which could negatively impact sales and profits.
- Margins are anticipated to be under pressure in Q2, with less benefit from pricing and increased investments in marketing and price gap management activities, potentially leading to a deceleration of profit growth.
- Volume declines in the Consumer Americas segment, especially in prepared food categories, mustard, and hot sauce, remain a challenge and may continue to pressure overall volume growth despite expected improvements.
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Sales Growth Confidence
Q: Why greater confidence in achieving higher end of sales guidance?
A: We had a strong first quarter with sales exceeding expectations, giving us confidence to achieve the mid- to high end of our constant currency sales growth range for the full year. We drove sequential volume improvement in our core categories, especially spices and seasonings. Investments in brand marketing, new product launches, and targeted price gap management are performing well. We expanded margins and accomplished the things we set out to do, contributing to our confidence for the rest of the year. -
Americas Consumer Volume Outlook
Q: Will Consumer Americas volumes improve sequentially and turn positive?
A: In Q1, Americas consumer volume declined by 2.6%, mainly due to the DSD exit and declines in prepared food categories. Excluding these factors, volume growth would have been flat to slightly positive. Growth in spices and seasonings was healthy but offset by declines in mustard and hot sauce. We expect volumes to continue improving sequentially and to drive volume growth in the second half of the year. -
China Segment Performance
Q: How are China Consumer and Flavor Solutions performing?
A: China met our expectations in Q1 for both Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments. Our outlook for China Consumer remains cautious due to factors like youth unemployment and reduced consumer confidence. Smaller independent restaurants are losing traffic to larger QSR chains, affecting our Consumer segment. However, we expect our Flavor Solutions business in China to be stronger in 2024, driven by the growth of established QSRs. -
Flavor Solutions Volume Fluctuations
Q: Are there anticipated headwinds for Flavor Solutions in Q2?
A: While we saw positive volume growth in Flavor Solutions in Q1, some regions like EMEA face headwinds due to variability in customer activity. We expect possible setbacks in Q2 but anticipate volume growth in the second half of the year. The business can fluctuate due to factors like new product launches and foot traffic at QSR customers. -
Spices and Seasonings Share Gains
Q: What's driving unit share improvement in Spices and Seasonings?
A: Unit share gains are driven by new packaging increasing on-shelf velocity, recapturing distribution points, and increased advertising. The rollout of new packaging is progressing and expected to be complete by end of Q2. These efforts led to unit share gains at the end of the quarter. -
Second Quarter Margin Outlook
Q: Why modest gross margin improvement expected in Q2?
A: Q2 is an inflection point with less pricing benefit as pricing actions decrease from 2.7% in Q1 to 1% for the year. We're activating more price gap management and increasing A&P investments, which puts pressure on margins. Volume improvements are expected but not enough to offset reduced pricing benefits in Q2. We anticipate stronger margin improvement in the second half. -
Price Gap Management Scope
Q: What percent of the portfolio is under price gap management?
A: Our price gap management efforts target less than 15% of our Americas portfolio, specifically in Spices and Seasonings and Recipe Mixes. These actions are precise and SKU-specific. We are comfortable with the current scope and constantly evaluate the need for adjustments. -
Hot Sauce Trial Sizes
Q: How are $1 trial sizes impacting the hot sauce category?
A: Trial sizes at $1 price points have driven significant unit growth and added new users to the category. While it pressures our unit share, it's positive as it brings new households into the category. We are evaluating offering our own trial sizes and increasing brand marketing and innovation, particularly for Frank's and Cholula. -
Outlook for Mustard and Prepared Foods
Q: What are the plans to improve mustard and prepared foods categories?
A: In mustard, low price points from private labels have impacted consumption. We plan to increase promotional programs, especially during the grilling season, and strengthen distribution to improve trends. Prepared foods is a smaller, non-core part of our portfolio; we are monitoring trends and managing the portfolio accordingly. -
Shelf Resets Impact
Q: Will shelf resets lead to incremental shipments in Q2?
A: We view gains in total distribution points (TDPs) as incremental to our market presence. While shelf resets will benefit us, their impact is already factored into our outlook. The new packaging rollout isn't expected to cause a significant shipment spike but will improve velocity over time. -
Discrepancies in Tracked Data
Q: Why is there a difference between tracked data and reported sales?
A: We rely on Circana data, which provides a broader view of our categories compared to Nielsen. Differences may arise due to variations in how categories are captured. Strong growth in e-commerce and performance in Canada and Latin America also contribute to discrepancies. -
Mexico JV Performance
Q: How did the Mexico JV perform, and what's the outlook?
A: Our joint venture in Mexico had a strong Q1 with 50% growth, partly due to comping against a weaker quarter. It's too early to adjust our full-year guidance of mid-teens growth. The business is profitable with strong brand positions, and we export products like mayonnaise to the U.S.. -
Interest Expense Guidance
Q: What's the outlook for interest expense?
A: We didn't provide specific guidance as it's not material; we expect it to be roughly equal to the first quarter and do not anticipate significant changes for the year.
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